The World As I See It

Global Warming Analysis Report

Posted by SteveB on May 6, 2009

To:       UN IPCC Committee

From:   Dr. Heinz Lycklama (PhD in Nuclear Physics, McMaster University)

Date:   May 4, 2009

Subject: Analysis of the Global Warming Issue

 Earlier this year I started to look into the issue of Global Warming (GW) and attempt to understand why the issue had become such a controversial one.  The general public has become attuned to the issue of GW and I (as an independent scientist) wanted to do my part in educating the public on the underlying science so that good public policy would be established.  I assumed that science should be able to show the extent of GW and determine whether GW is due to man-made causes or to natural causes.  Once we get the science right we would then know how to deal with GW.  It turns out that things are a lot more complicated and unsettled than I thought they were.  So I dug into the science behind GW much more thoroughly.

 Although I have addressed this memo to the UN IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), my findings, conclusions and suggestions are meant for all scientists actively involved in the study of climate change.  It is my sincere hope that all interested parties will take my comments seriously in order to resolve the confusion that exists in the science behind GW so that policy makers and politicians have the most recent and accurate information available about the extent and causes of GW.  That way the policy makers might in turn recommend reasonable solutions to the perceived problem of GW.  IPCC’s continued involvement in fostering international public policy is important.  Input from climate scientists not involved in the IPCC is also important.

 I have read the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) and related documents.  The IPCC AR4 report makes these statements:

  • ·        Most of the observed increase in globally averaged temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations.
  • Continued greenhouse gas emissions at or above current rates would cause further warming and induce many changes in the global climate system during the 21st century that would very likely be larger than those observed during the 20th century.

The report makes the assumption that the recent GW trend observed over the last 25-30 years is likely based on increased greenhouse (GH) gases and that this GW trend is likely to continue during this century.  However, the assumption and prediction do not agree with the Global Cooling (GC) cycle that some climate scientists have observed/predicted that we now appear to be entering.

 My research led me to a report put together by a group of climate scientists who identify themselves as the Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), as well as the U.S. Senate Minority Report in which more than 700 internatioanl scientists dissent over man-made GW claims.  I have also discovered a large number of other technical papers in the field of climatology that show the extent and the causes of GW to be different from what the IPCC report concludes.  Many of my key reference documents are listed at the end of this report.

 I have reviewed the the NIPCC report “Summary for Policymakers” document, as well as some of the technical papers presented at the recent International Climate Change Conference held in NYC in March 2009.  This in turn led me to many other dissenting opinions on the extent and possible causes of GW.  Most of the non-IPCC technical papers conclude that GW is largely due to natural cyclical causes, and not due to anthropogenic causes.  If we include the more than 31,000 scientists who have signed the Global Warming Petition Project, we have thousands of scientists who believe that the recent GW trend is due primarily to natural causes, with little impact by man-made causes, as the tens of scientists involved in IPCC believe.  This is not consensus.

Click on the link below for the entire report.

Global Warming Analysis Report.

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