A Layman’s Explanation of Why Global Warming Predictions by Climate Models are Wrong « Roy Spencer, Ph. D.
Posted by SteveB on June 1, 2009
I occasionally hear the complaint that some of what I write is too technical to understand, which I’m sure is true. The climate system is complex, and discussing the scientific issues associated with global warming (aka “climate change”) can get pretty technical pretty fast.
Fortunately, the most serious problem the climate models have (in my view) is one which is easily understood by the public. So, I’m going to make yet another attempt at explaining why the computerized climate models tracked by the U.N.’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) – all 23 of them – predict too much warming for our future. The basic problem I am talking about has been peer reviewed and published by us, and so cannot be dismissed lightly.
But this time I will use no graphs (!), and I will use only a single number (!!) which I promise will be a small one.
I will do this in three steps. First, I will use the example of a pot of water on the stove to demonstrate why the temperature of things (like the Earth) rises or falls.
Secondly, I will describe why so many climate model “experts” believe that adding CO2 to the atmosphere will cause the climate system to warm by a large, possibly catastrophic amount.
Finally, I will show how Mother Nature has fooled those climate experts into programming climate models to behave incorrectly.
Read the entier article below.